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What Do 2024 Mail In Voting Trends Indicate for the Presidential Race?
October 3, 2024 — Early voting and mail-ballot requests are underway in multiple states for the 2024 US Presidential election.
Three key battleground states in the 2024 election where mail-in voting or early voting is underway are North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Virginia is not a battleground state you say, well most people agree with you. But it is trending right, and it has my vote as the most likely shocking upset in the 2024 race. To be fair, I’d say Harris best chance for a shocking upset is in Georgia.
I conducted an analysis based on the daily reports coming in from these states. My goal was to determine if this indicated a trend that could favor former President Donald J. Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.
North Carolina — Mail-in Ballots
Trump narrowly defeated Biden in North Carolina by a narrow 74,481 votes in 2020. If Harris can flip North Carolina, she would be the favorite to win the White House, with multiple paths to victory, since the state was the furthest right-leaning of the battleground states in 2020.
In North Carolina, Democrats lead Republicans by 15.4% in mail-in voting requests, contrasted to a 26.1% lead by the end of the 2020.
